2010年是世界反法西斯胜利65周年,各国都在以各种方式来纪念这一历史性的事件。事实上,二战前承了上世纪初的一战,也直接导致了现在世界的强弱格局,毋庸置疑地成为上一世纪人类最重大的事件。那么接着下来的这一世纪又会是哪些力量统领世界?坊间有不少关于未来国际格局大预测的书,今天我们为大家介绍的是其中非常有影响力的一本—《未来一百年预测》,它是世界著名的地缘政治学家、美国战略预测专家乔治·弗里德曼和他的团队多年的调查分析成果。此书一出就震惊世界。
虽只是一家之言,个中很多观点也的确有待商榷,但作为中国人其实应该放开眼界去吸收、了解各种声音,这样才不至于夜郎自大、固步自封。“中国将会很强大”的论调我们听得不少,是时候走出紫禁城,向世界的各个角落抬眼望过去了。
本文是乔治·弗里德曼介绍该书的一个采访录音。
发音：美式发音
语速：150词/分钟
使用方法：泛听+复述
George Friedman: The United States controls all the oceans of the world. There isn't anywhere that you can sail in the world that you are not under the 1)surveillance of the US Navy. No power has ever controlled all of the oceans of the world. The Next 100 Years is a book that's trying to forecast what it's going to look like in the first century of the American Age. This book is about the decline of European power and the rise of American power. The fact is, in spite of what everybody might believe, the United States is only at the very beginning of the rise of its power. 
乔治·弗里德曼:美国控制着世界上的所有海洋。无论你航行在世界上的哪一个地方,都无法避开美国海军的监视。在人类历史上,从未有哪一个强国可以控制世界上的全部海洋。《未来一百年预测》这本书力图预测美国时代的第一个世纪里将会发生的事情。这本书讲述欧洲强权的衰落,美国势力的崛起。不管人们怎么想,美国强权时代只不过是刚刚开始。
What I'm trying to figure out over the next hundred years is what's going to be important and what's not. And things that we think of as very important right now aren't going to be even remembered, and things that we haven't even noticed are going to dominate. History repeats itself, so, for example, there was a reason there was a great 2)Ottoman Empire for centuries dominating the Islamic world. As the Europeans withdraw, as the Americans withdraw, the natural balance of the Islamic world will 3)reassert itself, and that natural balance is in Turkey.
我试图弄明白的是,在接下来的一百年里,什么是重要的,什么不是。我们现今觉得很重要的事情以后将会不值一提,而今天我们不注意的事以后则会占主导地位。历史会重演。比如说,之前强大的奥斯曼帝国统治了伊斯兰世界数百年是有原因的。随着欧洲人与美国人相继退出历史舞台,伊斯兰世界的自然平衡会重新建立起来,而这种平衡背后的力量正是土耳其。
Turkish power is even today stretching out throughout the region. Turkey is the 17th largest economy in the world, larger than Saudi Arabia. This is a major power that no one's noticing, but no one makes a move in the region without checking with the Turks, and that's and that's going to become more and more evident and important.
即使在今天,土耳其的势力也遍布整个地区。土耳其是当今世界上第17大经济体,比沙特阿拉伯还强大。没有多少人在留意这个强国,但在这个地区,也没有谁不先与土耳其人商量就敢有什么举动。这一点将会越来越明显,也日趋重要。
In my book, The Next 100 Years, there are two forces that are going to help shape global warming. The first is going to be the natural decline in population growth that's going to reduce pressure and demand for energy, and the second is going to be a really radical new approach to energy production; solar power, but not on Earth, in space. Space-based solar power by the end of the century is going to dominate our energy production and it's going to make the United States even more powerful than it was before, because, in addition to everything else, we will replace Saudi Arabia as the world's source of energy.
在我写的这本《未来一百年预测》里,有两股力量将对全球变暖的形成起推波助澜的作用。第一股力量是人口增长的自然下降,它将减缓对能源需求的压力。第二股力量是能源生产方面将出现真正翻天覆地的手段——太阳能。但并不是在地球上获取太阳能,而是在太空进行。到了本世纪末,从太空获取太阳能将会成为我们能源生产的主要方式,这将使美国比以前任何时候都要强大。因为继其他领域后,美国将取代沙特阿拉伯,成为世界的能源之源。
A lot of people will say the next hundred years is unduly focused on the United States. That's not true. The next hundred years will be all about the United States. That's not because I'm American, it will be because that is the way power works right now. The next hundred years is not going to be the end of the United States. Europe ruled the world for 500 years. I suspect that North America will rule the world for about that long. Doesn't mean it will be the United States ruling the world—North America—and there is already a challenge slowly developing to American power. Mexico, the world's 13th largest economy, a hundred million people, many of them located in the United States inside of the old areas the United States won in the 19th century, is rising again, and by the end of the century it will rise and challenge the United States. And in the 21st century, in the next hundred years, it will end with America ruling the world but very much uneasy in North America as Mexico faces it and challenges it.
许多人认为接下来的一百年里,世界会把注意力过度地集中在美国上。那不对,在以后的一百年里,人们的注意力会全部集中在美国上。我这么说不是因为我是美国人,是因为现在的世界强权运作的方式正是这样。下一个百年并不是美国时代的结束。欧洲曾经主宰世界长达五百年之久,我认为北美也同样会主宰世界五百年。但那不意味着统治世界的会是美国,而会是北美,因为已经有一股对抗的国家力量正在慢慢形成。墨西哥是世界第13大经济体,人口一亿,其中许多墨西哥人居住在19世纪被美国占领的原属墨西哥的土地上。这个国家正再次崛起,到了本世纪末,它将崛起成为美国的挑战者。在21世纪,在下一个百年里,随着墨西哥直接对抗并挑战美国,它将以美国对世界的统治告终,但要在北美取得此结果将相当艰难。
What I really want people to understand is that history is not as 4)random and unpredictable as it appears, that you can predict certain changes, but that the fundamental nature of the human condition—that there are families, that people fall in love, that they fight wars, that they make money, that they steal from each other—that remains constant. And so long as you bear that in mind, you can predict the future.
我非常想让人们明白,历史并不是它看起来的那么随意和没有预测性。人们是可以预测历史的一些变化的。但人类最基本的本性并不会变。比如说人们会组织家庭,人们会相爱,人们会挑起战争,人们会挣钱,人们会相互偷窃,这些都不会改变。只要记住了这些,那就可以预测未来。
My profession is forecasting, and the company I founded, 5)STRATFOR, specializes in that, usually one year out, five years out, maybe ten years out. The book that I've written, The Next 100 Years tries to push that method out to a century. Lot of people think it can't be done: I have to tell you that I think we did it.
我的工作就是预测未来,我创办的STRATFOR公司专门预测一年、五年,或者十年的趋势。我写的这本书《未来一百年预测》力图用同样的原理方法预测一个世纪的趋势。许多人觉得那是不可能的,但我要说的是,我认为我们做到了。
